Week 5 Picks, Point Spreads and Amazingly Insightful Commentary

by Annapolisbuckeye on October 2, 2009

(This video has nothing to do with college football but somehow, in some way, it applies…”You get pitted, so pitted”)

A month in to the college football season and we know one thing for sure — preseason rankings pretty much suck. So far this year we’ve enjoyed a weekly beat down of “top 5″ teams. No question the media hype has had it’s influence this year. Maybe it’s just a plot to keep the interest levels high. Remember, if we had a playoff, the losses wouldn’t mean near as much.

So with that, let’s begin:

Ohio State vs. Indiana (spread now at 17.5)
I seem to have irked a few Hoosier fans with my earlier post about wearing gray to Memorial Stadium this weekend. Sounds like Indiana fans will be happy just to see a full stadium regardless of who is in the stands. I hope we can help them out in that regard.

As for the game, if you made your pick earlier this week, you got a bargain of about a point or so as the spread has gone up since Monday. I don’t think it matters though. The Buckeyes are not Michigan and Michigan definitely doesn’t have the Ohio State defense.

The real action is on how many yards the Buckeye D will allow. Even though the Hoosiers looked good against Michigan and sure, the refs handed UM the game, I’m calling a third straight shut out for the Buckeyes. At the very least, Indiana will be limited to field goals. The pressure will shut down the Indiana passing game leaving them to the run and from there, it’s an Ohio State game.

On the offense, Tressel will play his running game early. Once the defense has proven themselves, we’ll continue to see Pryor work on his passing game. A three touchdown lead shouldn’t be too difficult.

Michigan vs. Michigan State (MSU -3)
Each year I keep thinking that this will be the year for Michigan State. We know that MSU coach Mark Dantonio can put together a defense and one of these days, I’m convinced he will. With an opening record of 1-3, this doesn’t seem to be the year.

However, for the Spartans at least, this is still a rivalry game and wow, do they have something to prove.

Meanwhile, Wolverine fans are prepping once again for a colossal heartbreak. So what if they barely got past Indiana, they beat Notre Dame and hopes are riding high on the 4-0 start. And why shouldn’t they be? Coach Rod is running something that resembles a spread offense and that is what he’s all about isn’t he? Just to prove how much the media loves the spread, one of the talking heads (I can’t remember who) even mentioned quarterback Tate Forcier and Heisman in the same sentence.

Unfortunately, the Michigan defense hasn’t taken note. Michigan State has the size and speed in the receiving corps to do some damage and if the Spartan defense wakes up, UM could be in for a rude awakening. Forcier’s got a sore shoulder which could also have an impact.

Again, those who shop early got a bargain this week as the spread opened up even. I’m taking the Spartans to cover the spread and them some. Expect Michigan football under coach Rodriguez to return to Michigan football under coach Rodriguez.

Illinois Vs. Penn State (PSU -7)
What a difference a week makes. Iowa exposed a glaring weakness in the Penn State offense and Illinois, who is supposed to have a talented offense got shut down. Back in August, this was something of a premier game but in the course of an afternoon, the luster was gone.

I’m actually surprised that the spread of 7 is as low as it is. However, it appears that the Penn State offensive line has a lot of work to do and quarterback Daryll Clark is easily shaken. Of course, spending the night running from really big defensemen tends to have that effect.

So the question remains — was the Penn State ranking a symptom of my early complaint or will they step up and play like the team we’ve heard so much about. Same with Illnois. One of these days Juice Williams and crew will play to their talent. Will this be the game? If Illinois can harass Clark and if Williams remembers how to play quarterback, Penn State could be in trouble. On the other hand, we haven’t seen anything from Illinois so far this year to suggest that they will come together this year. If they don’t, expect a Penn State blowout.

Enough Picks. Time for some random thoughts

Notre Dame? Jimmy Clausen? You’re kidding right?
What has Notre Dame or Jimmy Clausen actually done to deserve the accolades? Lose to Michigan? Barely beat Purdue? Is that all it takes for Heisman consideration? The only thing I can figure is the previously mentioned bias toward a spread offense. Again, using the term loosly. That and of course the fact that Notre Dame is Notre Dame and brings the networks a ton of money. For Notre Dame, all you need to do is win a game or two against the academies and you’re in the BCS mix.

Washington should give them a game this weekend and if they don’t USC is the week after. At the very least, I’m going with Navy to put things back in perspective.

Of course Clausen has a bad toe and it will be an ongoing excuse for the rest of the season. “If it weren’t for his toe, the Irish would be looking at a national championship.”

How about them Bearcats?
Question, if Cinci runs the table, where will they play post season? Unfortunately, there’s just too much bias for the SEC, Big 12 and others for them to get to the national championship. Even if Florida loses a game, it will be attributed to Tebow’s head injury and they’ll get a second shot. There’s a number of Teams (Texas, Alabama, USC) that could go one loss and still beat them out. If Penn State hadn’t lost to Iowa, the Buckeyes might have even had a one loss shot.

Cinci will finish the season without seeing another ranked team which won’t help them any. The real question is, could we see an Ohio State/Cinci BCS game? There’s a scenaro out there that could make it happen but it’s a long shot.

Well, that’s enough for now. Join us game Sat. for live chat. For those of use who are no longer in Columbus and can’t get to a game watch, it’s the next best thing.

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

buckeyemark53 October 2, 2009 at 10:46 pm

I like OSU over the Hoosiers by 20, MSU over UM by 3, Penn State over the Illini by 21, ND… don’t care, and OSU vs. Cinci would be interesting. I’m just waiting to see the next round of upsets. OSU just needs to keep winning!

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gulfportcarl October 3, 2009 at 10:23 am

There will be a couple of questions answered today. Is Indiana much improved and is Michigan the same. Picking spreads is a tricky business. I will take the over in the OSU-ISU game.
MSU has stuggled this year, Mich has not showed any defense, (toss up). The over in the PS-ILL game. I’m with buckeyemark on the ND game who cares. I also hear they are putting Jimmy Clausens name in the Hiesman chase. What a joke.
Go Buckeyes.

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Annapolisbuckeye October 3, 2009 at 11:22 am

Hmm…I didn’t think of looking at the O/U. Just looked it up to see Ohio/Indiana at 48. I can’t see Indiana putting those kind of points on the board and I sure don’t see Ohio State getting that many. I/m with Buckeyemark at 20 or so but a total of 48 points? Will be interesting to see.

If BMark is right with PSU, that’s beating the spread by 13 points or so. I think he’s right.

I agree that Indiana is much improved but I also think Michigan is way overrated (as is Notre Dame).

To prove the media bias though, one of the columnists in the online edition of Sporting News talked about how overrated Michigan was and how they would get shut down this weekend and then went on to talk about how Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen are so dangerous. IN THE SAME COLUMN!!!

Did anyone notice that Michigan beat ND?

I meant to put a link to that article in the post above and can’t find it now.

Have a good Sat. All. Join in for the chat if you’re watching the game at home.

GO BUCKS!

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