While I’ve been avoiding the in depth analysis of a scenario that could lead to a BCS Championship rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, take a look at what Louisville’s win over WV does.
With the win, Louisville has reason to be upset if they do not jump past Florida into the #3 spot. It was a convincing win over an undefeated, #3 team. If they were to win out the season beating out Rutgers and Pitt (which could move up by then), it is possible that they could go unbeaten and not get to the BCS Championship.
At the present time, there is a huge gap in the BCS numbers between UM at #2 and the next 10 or so teams. As Dave Resvine at ESPN.com points out, the BCS point difference between #2 Michigan and (preloss) #3 WV is twice the difference between #3 WV and #11 Tenn.
The BCS points gap between the number two and number three spots is huge. While soft opponents for both UM and OSU may bring the point gap down a little, by Nov. 18th, there still could be a major difference between the number two and number 3 team.
This means that if the Ohio State/Michigan game is a close match, especially one that goes into overtime, the loser may not drop out of second place. The winner will have beaten two number #2 ranked teams by the time the regular season is over (actually a #2 and #1 if Michigan wins).
If Florida wins out, they should have a strong claim on the the BCS spot. As Revsine points out, they have faced for top 25 teams so far this year (and they should meet another in the SEC championship).
A three way loss in the Big East would effectively take them out of the running (Louisville loses to Rutgers who loses to WV.)
While the pollsters will do everything they can to prevent it, and I can’t say I really like the idea myself, an Ohio State/Michigan rematch in Jan. is not such a far-fetched idea.
