Ohio State vs. USC Early Point Spread at 3.5

(Update: Since writing this post, the spread has nearly doubled to 6.5-7 points post Navy game. Regardless, I’m sticking with the Bucks.)

While I’m not much of a gambler, I enjoy following the point spreads because they give you a glimpse of public opinion. Considering Ohio State’s recent performances in big games, I was somewhat surprised to see that the opening spreads are only makingUSC a 3.5 point favorite.. All things considered, I assumed that the Buckeyes would be a bigger underdog.

And while I’m not one to look past the opener with Navy (note the pen name “Annapolisbuckeye”), USC is the game which will determine both schools fate for the 2009 season.

Regardless of the general consensus outside of Buckeye Nation, I think the boys in Vegas are on to something. There’s no question that OSU/USC has the potential to be a very close game and Ohio State is USC’s biggest threat of the year (or should I say that USC is Ohio State’s biggest threat of the year). Here’s four reasons why the spread may be opening at 3.5 points and why I’m putting my money on the Bucks to win.

1. We play them in the Shoe

No question the home field advantage will help. And face it, while USC may have a good record against top 10 ranked schools, the majority of those games were played in either the Coliseum or Rose Bowl. Move east of the Mississipppi and they don’t look near as good. Sure, give them the ‘05 win against Notre Dame but come on. It’s not often you save a game by fumbling the ball.

Although it’s still unclear who’s starting at QB for USC, whoever they choose will be untested in a harsh environment – and The Shoe will be a harsh environment. It’s just too bad we don’t play them in late Nov. Those Southern Cal beech boys wouldn’t know what to do with snow and cold.

2. Quarterback Situation

When it comes to quarterback, take last year’s situation and turn it around. Last year, by game time in the Coliseum, the Buckeyes still hadn’t worked out their quarter back issues. Terrelle Pryor was an untested freshmen. During preseason practice, it wasn’t even clear if he would play at all. Sure, he was fast but lacked much needed passing confidence. As a result, USC’s speedy defense was quickly able to shut down his one-dimensional play.

This year, USC will meet an entirely different Terrelle Pryor. Pryor’s passing game has matured and he’s still got serious speed. The Cleveland Plain Dealer recently reported that Pryor may be the fastest player in the Big 10. According to the Plain Dealer, he posted a 4.33 in the 40. For reference, according to the Plain Dealer, the fastest quarterback in last two NFL combines posted a 4.55.

I think the college football outside of Buckeye Nation hasn’t quite caught on to Pryor basing their perceptions on the freshmen they saw last year. I’m making the prediction here that he is going to surprise more then a few people and will be a major force in a Buckeye BCS drive.

As for USC, by the end of last spring, everyone was expecting Aaron Corp to step into the role of starting quarterback for USC. However, a leg injury sidelined Corp for at least three weeks. He’s got a cracked bone in his leg and while I know college and pro players get back from these injuries amazingly fast, I can’t believe that he’ll be 100 percent.

In the meantime, freshman Matt Barkley has stepped up to challenge for the starting role. Behind him is Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain.

Any of this starting to sound familiar? Even if Corp is back to health and able to start in the opener against San Jose, Barkley has been taking the snaps while he is out and seems to be proving himself. Reports from practice is that he’s shown his share of freshman jitters. Regardless, at the moment the position is up in the air. At the very least, neither quarterback is the force Pryor brings to the field.

3. Speed

Nope, I’m not talking about USC speed. I’m talking Buckeye speed. You heard me right…Buckeye speed. I already gave you the stats on Pryor above. He’s not alone. After losing some powerful senior receivers, there’s been some question about Ohio State’s recieving corps. Not from this blogger. Although the Plain Dealer’s reported 40 times are all word of mouth, if they’re accurate Pryor’s got a couple of speedy receivers to help him out. Lamaar Thomas posted a 4.37 and Ray Small and DeVier Posey posted in the 4.4s.

Pryor’s also going to have help with the running game as Brandon Saine also posted in the 4.4s. Boom Herron proved himself as a backup to Beanie last year and I don’t think he’ll have any problem stepping in to fill the role. I’ll be glad to take a healthy Saine and Herron over an injured Wells against USC any day. Last year, USC knew they had to shut down Beanie and they did. (And remember, Wells was questionable even the morning of game day.) This year, the Buckeyes will show USC a much more diverse threat.

Yeah, USC’s defense is knows for their speed but I think the Buckeyes have got what they need to give them a challenge.

Of course, I do need to raise my concerns (again) about the Ohio State offensive line. I don’t know what to expect this year. What I do know is that if they don’t get off their heels and protect the backfield better then they did last year (all season), then none of this really matters.

4. Injuries, NCAA Distractions, Etc.

Along with Corp, USC is dealing with a few other injuries of note. Fifth year senior defensive tackle Averell Spicer suffered what was termed a “serious sprained ankle.” And while I don’t know if he’ll be back, initial reports weren’t good.

Starting center Kristofer O’Dowd dislocated his knee cap, a repeat injury, and it’s not clear if he’ll be back in time either. An experienced center can be a big plus bringing in a new quarterback.

Offensive lineman Nick Howell also suffered a sprained ankle and is questionable for opening day.

And just for fun, the NCAA is still chasing USC for violations. The Los Angles Times says that the latest involves a pro kicking coach providing advice as a consultant. I’m not sure how much I put into this charge. With all the Buckeye alum turned NFL player hanging around the Ohio State locker room, well, I can’t believe this type of charge couldn’t also be a concern at OSU.

What’s most interesting is that the NCAA is looking into whether or not USC has lost “institutional control” of their athletics program. Those charges are a much more serious. According to the article in the Times, the investigation comes from a series of charges including illicit payments to Reggie Bush and former basketball player O.J. Mayo and coach, Tim Floyd. The consulting situation just adds to the fire. If the NCAA actually decides that USC has lost institutional control of athletics, that could result in a ban from post season play and the massive amounts of money that come with it.

Not that I actually think the NCAA investigation could have any effect on the OSU/USC game, it’s fun to stir the pot.

So, with that, my confidence is up. Not only do I think the Buckeyes have a good shot of beating the spread, I think they have the potential to win this game and win it big. There is nothing Buckeye Nation (or the entire Big Ten for that matter) needs more right now then to give USC a good old fashion butt whoopin. The past few years may have shaken my confidence but that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes don’t have it in them. Our recent loses on the big stage have had a big impact on public perception. The time has come to redeem our rightful place of honor and no better opportunity to do it then against the every annoying Trojans.

Update: Since the Navy game the spread has nearly doubled bouncing between 6.5 and seven points. Check the current spread here.