Buckeyes 2.5 point favorite over Wisconsin. Click here for complete odds.
At halftime of the Wisconsin/Michigan game last Saturday, I pried myself off the couch, called my bookie and doubled my bet on Wisconsin beating the mere six point spread and went out to spend my sure winnings. It wasn’t until later that evening that I discovered that Wisconsin, in typical Wisconsin fashion, had given Michigan their biggest comeback in the history of the Big House.
So after spending the rest of my weekend chasing after an already spent losing bet, I watched the second half of the Badger implosion. It doesn’t take much to see how Wisconsin manged to dump their run at the Big Ten championship on a steaming pile of what passes for Wolverine football these days.
If Wisconsin makes the same mistakes against the Ohio State as they did in the second half against Michigan, they will be lucky to get within 20 points of the Bucks.
Let’s start with the Wisconsin D. By midway through the third quarter, the Wisconsin defense was looking tired. By the time the game was over, the Michigan offense had driven the ball right down their throats and was almost toying with them as they went. And how did Michigan Coach Rodriguez implement this amazing offense? Had Michigan finally found the spread offense they’ve been looking for all season? Did redshirt freshman quarterback Steven Threet finally show the speed and finesse that Rodriguez needs to change football in the Big Ten? Nope and nope.
Michigan didn’t do much more than run the ball up the middle. Threet, who is not known for his speed, even had a few impressive runs including a 30 some yard waddle to the 19 yard line. Threet passed for a mere 96 yards only completing 12 of 31 pass attempts.
And lets face it, if Wisconsin can’t stop a Michigan ground attack, they had better make some serious adjustments by the time Pryor and Wells show up at Camp Randall. I don’t care how high those crazy cheeshead fans jump around or how many nickel stuffed marshmallows they throw onto the field, if they play like they did in the second half against Michigan, this weekend’s game will turn into an absolute Buckeye rout.
It didn’t take long into the second half for the Wisconsin offense to start falling apart. Quarterback Allen Evridge was noticeably shaken after being repeatedly sacked. On most plays, coming out of the snap he was barely stepping back allowing Michigan defenders to practically reach him without even breaking the block. On one play, a Michigan lineman just jumped over the top of his blocker and managed to get to Evridge.
If he fails to make adjustments to his playing style this week, Evridge won’t stand a chance against an Ohio State defense. If Tressel can motivate the Buckeye defense to get off their buts and play with the speed and intensity they should be playing with, Wisconsin will be lucky to put points on the board.
Yes, Wisconsin will be at home. Yes, the Wisconsin is a tough place to play. Yes, the team we saw in the second half against Michigan can’t be the same team that will show up against the Buckeyes.
But there is no question Michigan was able to tire out the Wisconsin defense. If the Buckeyes can hold Wisconsin to three and outs early and use Wells and Pryor to run, run and run the ball again, the Wisconsin defense will soon find themselves needing to dig deep. Add in a couple of key passing plays, just enough to force the defense to cover the spread, and this game has the potential to become a blowout.
And that’s what I’m sticking with. Buckeyes win this one and win it big.
UpdateFor what it’s worth, the line has been bouncing around all week. As of Thursday afternoon, it is down to 1.5 points. The over/under is interesting at 44 pts. but I like the over/under for Ohio State at 21.5. If we see anything near the Wisconsin defense we saw last weekend, I don’t think the Buckeyes will have any problem putting up 21.5 points.
At the same time, the Wisconsin O/U is at 20 points. Again, for the reasons stated above, I think the Buckeyes can hold them.
Maybe I’m ruling out the Camp Randall factor here but I think the Buckeyes are going to open things up against the Badgers.
