Not sure what to make of this but the opening spread for The Game puts the Buckeyes as only 12.5 point favorites. Yeah, the boys in Vegas were way off when they opened the Bucks as 17 point favorites over Iowa but Iowa actually has a defense. Seems that in D-Rod’s rush to bring his spread offense to Mich1AAgan, nobody told him they need to line up on the other side of the ball.

Maybe They’re banking on Tress’s conservative nature. Maybe they’re thinking Tress will take it easy on a program that is in an absolute shambles.

I’ll post more in a few on both the Iowa game and the weekend to come.

A week ago I had this post written in my head. I was going to reflect on the 1985 game in which Haden Fry brought a #1 ranked 7-0 Iowa to Ohio Stadium only to be sent home packing with a 7-1 record. I was going to flash back to that post game celebration — the one in which I hung from the goal post while band members yelled in anger as the celebration was messing up their post game show. That same goal post that hung in Papa Joes until it burned in the mid 90s. I thought maybe I’d give a run down of that historic game (which I see 11 Warriors already did) — a game which remains one of the biggest upsets in Ohio State history.

And then came Northwestern.

Not only did the wheels come off the Iowa BCS bus last Saturday, the axles broke and the engine caught fire. Game saving quarterback Ricky Stanzi was not only injured, he underwent surgery this week for a season ending ankle sprain. Hawkeye fans, who just a week ago were riding on the wave of a dream season, now find themselves reduced to a blathering frustration and defeatism with a healthy dose of blame tossed in. Posts on Iowa blog Black Heart Gold Pants this week range from “F*uck you jNU” to comments like this:

“…Northwestern successfully executed their gameplan of “knock out Iowa’s best offensive player” for the second consecutive season.” (here)

and this:

“First of all, huge congratulations to Northwestern. We must admit that we didn’t see their ‘injure Ricky Stanzi’ gameplan coming, but they worked it to perfection”

and this:

“Lastly, we must congratulate the Northwestern alumni, each and every one clad in Armani suits and driving Ferraris, for outpaying Iowa’s previous efforts to bribe the referees.”

While some question the play calling which lead to Stanzi’s injury, others attempt to fight through the defeatism with absurd formulas in an attempt to paint Ohio State as beatable.

All that aside though, I do feel for Iowa. It sucked when Beanie was knocked out before the USC game. It sucked when Ginn was hurt in the celebration following his opening touchdown return against Florida. It sucked back in 1985 when Keith Byers injured his foot and couldn’t play in the upset mentioned above. None of those injuries amounted to the loss Iowa suffered last week. After losing Stanzi, they are forced to rely on sophomore quarterback James Vandenberg. Stanzi joins a long list of Iowa players out due to injuries.

And that is why the Buckeyes are currently a 17 point favorite over Iowa. If the defense plays like they did against Penn State…if they play like they did against Minnesota…if they play like they did against anyone other then Purdue, then 17 points is a good call.

Although I can’t get over the nagging feeling that the Penn State defense was way, way overrated, I think this Ohio State offense has turned a corner. At the very least, the offensive line demonstrated that they can hold the line which should at the very least provide a much needed boost of confidence. We also saw that when given the time, Pryor looks much better. He passes better, his ability to read the play looks better, his decision making is better. He starts to look like the quarterback Coach Tressel recruited.

The Iowa defense played havoc with the Penn State offense but so did Ohio State. Daryll Clark didn’t look as flustered last week as he did against Iowa–he just couldn’t get anything done. If it’s worth anything, the Buckeyes held Penn State to about a 100 yards less then Iowa (207/307).

As we all know, this game is going to come down to the Ohio State defense. Not only will they face an untested quarterback, they will line up against an Iowa offensive line plagued with injuries.

If Penn State was a sign of things to come, Pryor and company may be able to beat the spread with just a couple of trips to the end zone and a field goal or two tossed in for good measure.

Update: Apparently I was on to something when I talked about Purdue as a wake up call. Dispatch has the story this morning.

Don’t forget to predict and win!The Buckeye Blog is giving away a sweet iPhone case for guessing the score to the Ohio State/Iowa game. Click here to enter.

Under intense scrutiny from fans and reporters alike, Coach Tressel stood up at Tuesday’s press conference and did exactly what Coach Tressel always does — say nothing of substance. He faced some tough questions too. Should Pyror have been benched for Bauserman? When Beockman had a bad game turnoverwise against USC, you started Pryor the next game. Isn’t this a similar scenario?

Over and over again, the reporters questioned Tressel’s support of Pryor and Tress stuck to his guns. Other questions regarding offensive play calling, penalties, whatever didn’t do much better. According to Tressel, there is data we don’t know about, things we don’t see in practice that support his answers. While this may be the case, what we do see is the performance of the last three weeks or so which leaves me to wonder — how bad are things in practice? This is the best we’ve got?

Bob Hunter of the Columbus Dispatch has a great column this morning summarizing the press conference. I think his exact words were, “Bleah.” Hunter said that he was ready with the big guns and yet Tressel managed to differ 13 questions regarding Pryor. More poignant however, is that Hunter is recognizing a trend we’ve seen before with John Cooper and with Earl Bruce. Is history repeating itself?

Vegas Still Believes
I don’t know what the odds makers see that we don’t but the spread is currently 17 1/2 in favor of the Buckeyes over Minnesota. Maybe they see something in the offense that the rest of us don’t but at this point, we need a radical shift from the decline of the last two weeks for the Buckeyes to cover.

That doesn’t mean they won’t.

At the very least, last weekend’s loss to Purdue should have been a wake up call. One thing Tressel said in his press conference was that going into the game, the Buckeyes weren’t taking Purdue seriously. While we still don’t know if the offense can do it, we do know our defense can. If they step up and play like they were playing, Minnesota is in trouble.

Minnesota has one thing going for it and that’s wide receiver Eric Decker and Penn State pretty much shut him down last weekend. They’ve tried the run without much success and most important, Minnesota quarterback Adam Weber doesn’t seem to do well under pressure. If anybody can pressure a quarterback, it’s Kurt Coleman and company. The Buckeyes have the secondary to handle the pass. If the defensive line can bring their four man attack, they can shut down Minnesota.

This of course leaves us with the offense. While I’m sure they heard the message, can they do anything about it. While the defense might be good for a touchdown or two, nothing so far says the offense is. One good thing to note, the Buckeyes aren’t much for losing streaks. You have to go to 2004 before you find the Buckeyes stringing together losses.

Before the game, I said that Purdue might be just what the doctor ordered. Although I was way off in my reasoning (and my apologies to Purdue), it still may hold true. A good drubbing might be just what Pryor and company needed. I sure hope so.

Strength of the Big 10
In my post game frustration Saturday, I wrote a somewhat tongue in cheek post about the strength of the Big 10 and the difficulty of the conference. While the general consensus was that I’d lost my mind, a couple of defenders have actually come to my rescue.

“Barga” left a comment demonstrating how if you run the numbers, the Big Ten actually comes out second only to the SEC. His post lead me to another, more in depth analysison The Rivalry Esq. which again, demonstrates the strength of the Big 10.

While the Rivalry analysis is somewhat in depth, he does run the numbers a couple of different ways and Barga adds yet another all coming up with the same results.

Reading The Rivalry’s analysis may take a while but there are a couple of choice comments from the end of the post that I strongly agree with:

“First, the ascendancy of the SEC over the last several years and the great year that the Big 12 had in 2008 seems to have pushed those two conferences to the forefront of commentators and voters thoughts when evaluating the conferences relative power among the BCS, regardless if this is matched by play on the field or not…

“Finally, while the middle schools of the SEC, the Big 12, and the Pac-10 are mediocre and the bottom schools truly rotten, the dominance of the conference power houses (Florida, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC) casts a halo around the rest of the conference that makes their conference look stronger as a whole. With OSU’s recent faltering, the Big 10 doesn’t really have a star team that has the same effect…

Part of what helps Florida cast such a glow over some of the lesser SEC schools is that when they play teams perceived as easier they tend to beat them by 40 or 50 points. While I personally find such pummeling of inferior competition distasteful, it’s clear that it makes an impact in the broadcast world. This is most easily illustrated by the attention that the major college football broadcasters – ESPN and CBS – pay to the SEC. Heck, they’ve even got a new SEC / ESPN logo these days. Dare to dream, I suppose…

“Perhaps if Iowa continues their play and earns some style points along the way this all will change. The ideal situation for the Big 10 as far as reputation gathering goes, would be for the trio of Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State (or another three, though those are currently the most likely) to return to dominance and stay there for a few years. This would then hopefully start to change the pervasive, yet misleading, aura of weakness around the Big 10.

Notice how he didn’t mention Michigan?

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Although the early lines are bouncing around, as of Monday afternoon, Penn State is favored over the Buckeyes by 2.

I like the way this game is shaping up. Tressel usually enjoys the role of the underdog and this is in our home stadium. I think this game will be decided by more than a field goal.

To see the lines for all NCAA games, click here.

The 2002 BCS Championship season brought us some great games. Games built upon a solid defense and some amazing play on special teams. It was the year when the punt became an offensive play – drop the ball in the three yard line, back them into the endzone, pressure the three and out punt and suddenly we’re in scoring position. And while the offense sometime struggled, the defense was a thing of beauty.

Mark Dantonio, who lead the Buckeye defense to Pheonix in 2002, now leads Michigan State. I’ve been saying for some time that sooner or later this team was going to be a threat and this may be the year.

Michigan State comes into this game 6-1 with their only loss coming on opening weekend to Cal. They are currently ranked #20 and find themselves in a three-way tie for the Big Ten lead with Penn State and the Buckeyes. With this weekend’s game against the Buckeyes, Penn State and Wisconsin (and yes, Michigan) still to come, it’s unclear if they’ve really been tested. They did however end Northwestern’s 5-0 run and won a close one over a much improved Iowa.

Like the Buckeyes (at least last week’s version of the Buckeyes), they have a powerful defense with an offense struggling to find its stride.

No question the MSU defense will be putting the pressure on Pryor from all sides. The Ohio State offensive line will have to step up and slow down the MSU attack. Two weeks ago, we heard that Tressel was letting the defensive line have it and it worked. In Tuesday’s press conference, it there were signs that the offense was getting the same treatment. There were no offensive awards given for the game against Purdue and in a Coach Tressel way, he was pretty hard on them.

So it comes down to this. Can the offensive line open up the passing lanes to let Wells and Pryor through. If so, then we’ve got a game on our hands. Not to state the obvious but Pryor needs to loosen up with the ball and not be afraid to pass it or even through it out of bounds. However, don’t think for a minute that Dantonio won’t put everything into stopping the run.

The MSU secondary has been somewhat banged up the past couple of weekends. Pryor needs to take advantage of the situation and show some confidence in his passing game. If Pryor can connect, the Buckeyes have a chance of winning comfortably. If not, this will become a defensive struggle that could be anybody’s game.

The Buckeyes are only favored by 3. Let’s hope we can put more than a couple of field goals on the scoreboard this week.

As of Wednesday morning, the Buckeyes are favored by 19 over the struggling Boilermakers. Considering the fact that Purdue couldn’t even slow the Notre Dame running attack, I’d say that’s a pretty good bet.

Face it, this is going to be a practice game for the Buckeyes and I don’t think there is any need to be concerned about the Buckeyes looking past this game. Offensively, the Buckeyes need to use this game to solidify the run and continue to build Pryor’s passing skills. Use the Pryor/Wells attack to get an early lead, give Wells a chance to rest the foot and let Pryor throw the ball.

Purdue also gives the defense a good chance to play the aggressive style we’ve all been looking for. Purdue likes the pass but they don’t have the power to stop the Buckeye defense — unless of course the Buckeyes fall into the typical conservative defense they have been playing as of late.

Other games of note

Michigan vs. Toledo (Michigan by 16)

I like the upset potential of this game. Toledo is coming off a double overtime loss to Fresno State — a loss that might have been saved if not for the two-point attempt to put the game away. The Rockets can put up some defense from time to time and we all know what a stand out Michigan has bee non offense.

The Toledo offense however, leaves something to be desired. This could be a low scoring game and wouldn’t we all love to see the upset.

Michigan State vs. Northwestern (MSU by 1.5)

Every year I keep thinking Michigan State is going to be the sleeper in the Big Ten and every year they keep proving me wrong. This year, they lost the opener to Cal but comfortably beat Notre Dame, and Indiania. They also won a close one against Iowa last weekend.

Northwestern comes into this game 5-0, including a win over Iowa. Other than Iowa though, they haven’t really been tested (and is Iowa a test these days?). Northwestern has won four of their last six against MSU. If they can come out of this weekend 6-0, it will be their best opening record since 1963.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (OU favored by 6.5)

Although nobody really expected it, Oklahoma has suddenly found themselves at the top of the rankings. Texas is no pushover as both teams come into this match up at 5-0.

Texas quarterback Colt McCoy needs to win a big one to secure his position on the national radar and knocking Oklahoma out of the number 1 spot may be just what he needs. McCoy is running well and his passing game is on the mark. A strong performance here and suddenly, McCoy and Texas will be in the national spotlight.

Texas can win this game if they can put some solid pressure on OU quarterback Sam Bradford. If they can get him off his rythm, they have a shot. Personally, I like Texas on this one but I’m not going to call it. If nothing else, I’d love to see Texas knock OU out of the number 1 spot.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin (Penn by 6)

As much as I’d like the Buckeyes to be the ones to spoil Penn State’s BCS dreams, this could be the game that ends it for the Lions. Wisconsin is not about to give up two home games without a serious fight — especially at night.

Face it, without their beloved white out, Penn State is at a big disadvantage. And don’t think for a minute that the Wisconsin fans aren’t going to be looking for someone to take their frutstrations out on. Penn State has struggled against the run and lets face it, that’s about all Wisconsin has.

If Wisconsin can play as physically as they did against the Buckeyes, I don’t think Penn will be able to take it. I’m taking the Badgers by a touchdown.

Buckeyes 2.5 point favorite over Wisconsin. Click here for complete odds.

At halftime of the Wisconsin/Michigan game last Saturday, I pried myself off the couch, called my bookie and doubled my bet on Wisconsin beating the mere six point spread and went out to spend my sure winnings. It wasn’t until later that evening that I discovered that Wisconsin, in typical Wisconsin fashion, had given Michigan their biggest comeback in the history of the Big House.

So after spending the rest of my weekend chasing after an already spent losing bet, I watched the second half of the Badger implosion. It doesn’t take much to see how Wisconsin manged to dump their run at the Big Ten championship on a steaming pile of what passes for Wolverine football these days.

If Wisconsin makes the same mistakes against the Ohio State as they did in the second half against Michigan, they will be lucky to get within 20 points of the Bucks.

Let’s start with the Wisconsin D. By midway through the third quarter, the Wisconsin defense was looking tired. By the time the game was over, the Michigan offense had driven the ball right down their throats and was almost toying with them as they went. And how did Michigan Coach Rodriguez implement this amazing offense? Had Michigan finally found the spread offense they’ve been looking for all season? Did redshirt freshman quarterback Steven Threet finally show the speed and finesse that Rodriguez needs to change football in the Big Ten? Nope and nope.

Michigan didn’t do much more than run the ball up the middle. Threet, who is not known for his speed, even had a few impressive runs including a 30 some yard waddle to the 19 yard line. Threet passed for a mere 96 yards only completing 12 of 31 pass attempts.

And lets face it, if Wisconsin can’t stop a Michigan ground attack, they had better make some serious adjustments by the time Pryor and Wells show up at Camp Randall. I don’t care how high those crazy cheeshead fans jump around or how many nickel stuffed marshmallows they throw onto the field, if they play like they did in the second half against Michigan, this weekend’s game will turn into an absolute Buckeye rout.

It didn’t take long into the second half for the Wisconsin offense to start falling apart. Quarterback Allen Evridge was noticeably shaken after being repeatedly sacked. On most plays, coming out of the snap he was barely stepping back allowing Michigan defenders to practically reach him without even breaking the block. On one play, a Michigan lineman just jumped over the top of his blocker and managed to get to Evridge.

If he fails to make adjustments to his playing style this week, Evridge won’t stand a chance against an Ohio State defense. If Tressel can motivate the Buckeye defense to get off their buts and play with the speed and intensity they should be playing with, Wisconsin will be lucky to put points on the board.

Yes, Wisconsin will be at home. Yes, the Wisconsin is a tough place to play. Yes, the team we saw in the second half against Michigan can’t be the same team that will show up against the Buckeyes.

But there is no question Michigan was able to tire out the Wisconsin defense. If the Buckeyes can hold Wisconsin to three and outs early and use Wells and Pryor to run, run and run the ball again, the Wisconsin defense will soon find themselves needing to dig deep. Add in a couple of key passing plays, just enough to force the defense to cover the spread, and this game has the potential to become a blowout.

And that’s what I’m sticking with. Buckeyes win this one and win it big.

UpdateFor what it’s worth, the line has been bouncing around all week. As of Thursday afternoon, it is down to 1.5 points. The over/under is interesting at 44 pts. but I like the over/under for Ohio State at 21.5. If we see anything near the Wisconsin defense we saw last weekend, I don’t think the Buckeyes will have any problem putting up 21.5 points.

At the same time, the Wisconsin O/U is at 20 points. Again, for the reasons stated above, I think the Buckeyes can hold them.

Maybe I’m ruling out the Camp Randall factor here but I think the Buckeyes are going to open things up against the Badgers.

Update: The spread is growing. As of Wed. night, BetUs now has the Buckeyes favored by 4.5. (It doesn’t take a weatherman…)

For updated current spread on all games, click here.

(This post has been changed since it’s original posting. Old post at bottom)

Thanks to charlottebuckeye who points out that the spread is opening at Ohio State by 3.5 with an over/under of 46. That comes from VegasInsider.com. Still nothing up on BetUs or many of the other sites I checked.

You will remember that last year the over/under was somewhere in the 40s. Whatever it was, I think Ohio State broke it by themselves. I think it will be a close game but I have faith that the Buckeyes will win by more than a field goal.

I also like taking the over on a measly 46 points.

—-Original post below—-

Monday evening and still no line on the Ohio State/Michigan game. Any guesses?

After last weekend, who knows. Word out of Anne Arbor is that both Henne and Hart will be healthy and ready to play…go figure.

Personally, I have no clue on a spread. I would guess that Ohio State would be favored but I’m not making any guarantees. Too many variables on this one.

If anyone wants to make a prediction, I’m open to suggestions. Please comment below.

If you had asked me in August to predict the spread for the Ohio State/Wisconsin, I don’t know exactly what the number would have been but I know this much–Wisconsin would have been the favorite.

Remember way back to the preseason? Oh what good times those were. Michigan was favored with a shot at the National Championship. Wisconsin was going to be the big stopper, the hurdle that if the Wolverines could past, would lead to clear sailing for Michigan senior class all the way to New Orleans. Penn State even had an outside shot of taking the Big Ten championship.

As for Ohio State, it was going to be a rebuilding year. Sure, they looked good on defense but after losing Troy Smith, Ted Ginn, et. all, and after that loss to Florida…well, let’s just say 2008 was looking good. To the media, 2007 was about rebuilding and we all know how rebuilding takes time and nurturing (just ask Charlie Weis).

Oh, and there was no question, none what so ever, that this year’s USC was going to be the greatest team in the history of college football. No really, I’m almost sure I heard Mark May say so somewhere in early September.

What a difference reality makes.

So here we are. Ohio State is back on top at number one, the preseason polls turned out to have about the same life span as that Florida mascot on the Ohio State campus.

After seeing the Buckeyes against Penn State and having seen very little from Wisconsin this season–plus the fact that they are playing at home, I say take the spread. The Buckeyes should have no problem putting up an extra 15 points on Wisconsin.

I’ll give a more detailed analysis later.

To see all the current odds, click here.

For Ohio State specific analysis and spread, click here.